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According to Baird, Tartan restaurants are on hold after the recent rally. Analyst David Tarantino downgraded Olive Garden’s parent from outperform to neutral, saying “risk/reward is very well balanced” following the stock’s recent outperformance. Including dividends, the company returned 1% to shareholders, while the S&P 500 lost 16%. Tartan shares rose more than 16% in the fourth quarter. “We still have a very positive view on the company’s internal operating fundamentals and believe that DRI is on track to deliver good results in FQ2-FQ3, but considering the stock’s year-to-date performance and the associated lingering risks, the macro outlook, the risk/reward on DRI is very high on current valuation metrics. “We believe in balance,” Tarantino said. While both the company and the broader casual dining industry were decent, favorable conditions for the sector are beginning to turn and point to a possible slowdown in 2023, Tarantino said. “While we think Darden is relatively well-positioned to navigate the slowing economy, we highlight the risk that tough macro conditions could delay revenue trends in current model assumptions for FQ4/F2024, creating some risk to revenue estimates,” he said. Along with the downgrade, Baird raised his price target on the stock to $150, indicating that the stock should hold close to current levels. The stock is down 2.5% this year. Tarantino remains optimistic about the long-term outlook for Tartan restaurants, and said a pullback in the stock or increased confidence in the casual dining industry would warrant a positive sentiment shift. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting
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