Will Nordstrom stock be the Grinch this year?

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Will Nordstrom stock be the Grinch this year?

A premium retail supermarket chain Nordstrom, Inc. (NYSE: JWN ) Shares have fallen (-27%) in 2022. Its latest revenue rate was overshadowed by falling YOY metrics. The sell-off accelerated after CEO Erik Nordstrom made bullish comments at the Morgan Stanley Consumer and Retail Conference.

Mr. Nordstrom said the company is seeing “signs of strain across all customer partners.” 2022 Holiday shopping season Depends on the final weeks leading up to Christmas. Hanukkah, which falls later in the month, adds an extra weekend day of shopping, giving customers a chance to pick up late-season bargains.

Traffic drops during Black Friday week

While Nordstrom saw a YY decline in foot traffic (-25.8%) during the week of Black Friday, they weren’t alone in the sharp decline. Overall Black Friday week Industrial sales volume decreased (-5%) and (-9%) compared to 2019. technology, Toys, and clothing all dropped during Black Friday week last year. Beauty is the only thing that has seen consistent sales growth over the past three years.

Red Silver losers

At department stores, Black Friday call traffic declined (-29.3%). Macy’s, Inc. (NYSE: M ) and for (-29%). Kohl’s Corporation (NYSE: KSS ), respectively. Big-box retailers and warehouse clubs didn’t escape the carnage Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST ) saw a drop in foot traffic (-25.3%) and Walmart Inc.-owned Sam’s Club (NYSE: WMT ) (14.2%) saw a decline. BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings (NYSE: BJ) (-25.3%) saw a decline. Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) (-5.8%) saw a decline, but The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD ) And Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (NYSE: LOW ) It saw a 23.4% and 30.5% drop in traffic.


Black Friday Winners

The winners include low-cost retailers Ross Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ: ROST ) And TJ Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TJX ) 2021 saw a boom in traffic. Ulta Beauty, Inc. (NASDAQ: ULTA ) 16.5% growth from 2021 and 31% growth from pre-2019 Covid levels. While brick-and-mortar store traffic fell, online sales rose to $9.12 billion Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE ) Analysis. E-commerce platform Shopify Inc. (NASDAQ: SHOP ) Back Friday sales rose 17% year-over-year to $3.3 billion.

Sluggish earnings

On November 22, 2021, Nordstrom released its third quarter fiscal 2022 results for the quarter ended October 2022. The company posted adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.20. $0.15, hitting $0.05 per share.

Actual loss per share including supply chain technology and asset impairment charges is (-$0.13) or (-$20 million). Revenues (-3.8%) fell year-over-year (YoY) to $3.5 billion, beating the consensus analyst estimate of $3.49 billion. One day of anniversary sales impacted net sales (-200 bps) going into Q3 2022. Nordstrom brand net sales decreased (-3.4%) year over year. Nordstrom rack sales down (-1.9%) year over year. Ending inventories rose 0.6%.

Nordstrom’s speaks

CEO Erik Nordstrom commented, “When customer demand slowed in late June, we took steps to align inventory and costs with changing trends, which has prepared us to navigate the current macroeconomic environment and supply chain capabilities, driving profitable growth and meeting our long-term strategic and financial goals. We focus on efforts to achieve.

Pete Nordstrom, president and chief merchandising officer, added, “We are right-sizing our inventory levels and mix, and will end 2022 with a healthy and current position. Customers will continue to respond to innovation and fashion in our offerings, and we are focused on responding to their changing needs.”

Forward guidance

The company expects fiscal 2023 full-year EPS of $2.30 to $2.60 and between analyst estimates of $2.36. Full-year 2023 revenue is expected to come in between $15.52 billion and $15.83 billion, down from an estimate of $15.67 billion.

Will Nordstrom stock be the Grinch this year?


Return to the downtrend channel

JWN stock attempted to break the bearish price channel when it broke through the weekly 20-period exponential moving average (EMA). An attempt to lower the weekly market structure (MSL) at $22.01 failed to sustain buying momentum as the stock declined below the weekly 50-period MA at $22.40.

This created a sell trigger at the weekly market structure high (MSH) below $19.67, which led to a decline in the bearish price channel as the weekly stochastic started to pull back through the 40-band. The bar is set low, but Nordstrom should actually see a sharp spike in consumer traffic in late December. Bullback support levels sit at the $16.14 swing low, $15.31, $14.17, $13.52, $12.80 and $12.27.

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