Range Breakout EA Backtesting Results & Set Files - Analysis & Predictions - 14 December 2022

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Backtesting results and how they were achieved:

There are a lot of inputs in this EA, all of which will create millions of possible combinations, so testing is done step by step, but the EA is mainly designed to be used on indices, so the focus is on DAX, NASDAQ and DOW. Open. Several tests are run over a year to get initial results for strength, and then you can test them over longer periods and out of sample periods, to verify the results at least breakeven or take profit in those periods.

While backtesting, I have run the EA in Strategy Tester in MT4 with Optimizer. It provides multiple runs of the EA to prove it is robust with multiple settings. In a typical run of 1000 variations of any input parameter, EA systems achieve 80-90% profit. This gives us confidence that whatever you use as input (within reason) you will get profitable returns and the margin provided by the EA.

Many tests can be done in the optimizer such as percentage targets, individual trade targets, taking a breakout, whether to use add-on trades or not, trailing stop levels, breakeven levels, risk level and more… not all. Tested, but these will be added here as more results come in from users or as I do further testing. And the EA can be used on other instruments and timeframes as well, which will undoubtedly be profitable setups. These are just to give you a taster of what’s possible and to show you some working initial package files. I encourage you to try your own backtesting and optimization to find more work for you.

1. All tests are conducted using tick level data provided by Dukascopy to provide 99.9% accuracy.

2. Use a consistent risk amount per trade to ensure that compounding does not block results.

3. 2021-04-01 – 1 year from 2022-04-01 Initial testing to prove the strategic concept profitable.

4. System parameters permutation testing to check multiple variations of settings like stop loss, take profit, breakeven to ensure that the strategy will work safely with multiple variations of inputs.

5. Standard pip spreads (2 pips) are used, although you can get better with most indices.

6. Run only on M5 period.

Below you can see the actual test settings used, DAX is shown here but the date ranges, duration and spread settings are the same for all indices.

Note: Range Break v1.1.ex4 is EA’s development name as shown above

Starter set files:

EA’s initial testing is done to find working and robust files.

This set of files works well in tested code, but may not suit everyone’s risk appetite, so I encourage you to test it yourself. With most experiments, you can adjust the risk amount input to reduce or enlarge the profit and draw accordingly.

An important note about this EA and its trading strategy to keep in mind while setting up these results and files!

This is a trend breakout EA. It is designed to take best advantage of trend days where price breaks and runs open for up to one session/day. So like all other breakout and trend strategies it is designed to get “home run” hits and does not strive for accuracy or a high strike rate. Strike rates of 20-30% are common in these types of strategies and focus on minimizing the drawdown when breakouts fail. Big payouts, consistently delivered over a year are the tipping point of this EA. You will experience stagnation in profits when the limit activity is at the end of the days, so combining this EA with a mean reversion strategy will reduce those periods nicely.